In a significant vote of confidence in the economic recovery efforts, international research firm Fitch Solutions has raised the country’s 2025 growth
In a significant vote of confidence in the economic recovery efforts, international research firm Fitch Solutions has raised the country’s 2025 growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.9%, citing stronger macroeconomic stability, easing inflation, and a relatively firm Ghanaian cedi.
The latest forecast, contained in Fitch’s September 2025 Monthly Outlook, signals optimism that the economy—battered by years of fiscal imbalances, high debt, and inflationary pressures—is now gradually stabilizing.
The report acknowledges that while challenges persist, notably from tight fiscal consolidation and high interest rates, the broader economic fundamentals are improving.
Fitch’s revision comes on the back of a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, where the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 5.3% year-on-year, largely propelled by gains in the agriculture sector.
The improvement marks a continuation of the country’s post-crisis rebound, following a turbulent 2022–2023 period when Ghana defaulted on part of its external debt and turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $3 billion Extended Credit Facility.
According to the report, the economy is expected to maintain a steady trajectory into 2026, with projected growth around 5.0%, supported by falling inflation, a likely easing of monetary policy, and increased public spending once the IMF programme winds down.
Fitch also projects inflation to decline sharply to 8.0% by the end of 2025, the lowest in four years, down from 11.5% in August 2025.
Recent data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) showed that GDP growth moderated slightly to 4.5% in July 2025, compared to 8.3% during the same period last year.
Nonetheless, the agricultural sector continues to drive growth, expanding by 8.0%—a dramatic rebound from just 2.4% in July 2024—thanks to improved rainfall patterns, government interventions under the Planting for Food and Jobs initiative, and better access to fertilizer and credit for farmers.
The stronger cedi and falling global energy prices have also boosted consumer confidence and household spending, while easing import costs for businesses.
Fitch notes that these developments, coupled with the government’s fiscal discipline under the IMF programme, are helping rebuild investor trust in the Ghanaian economy.
However, Fitch’s outlook contrasts slightly with other institutions.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains a more conservative 4.0% growth projection for Ghana in 2025, while the Government of Ghana, in its 2025 budget, targets 4.4% growth.
Despite the differing figures, all forecasts agree on one thing: the economy is on a path of gradual recovery after years of instability.
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