The National Farmers' Union (NFU) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will trigger a significant "inflationary wave" in food price
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will trigger a significant “inflationary wave” in food prices, potentially marking the sharpest spike since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
NFU President Tom Bradshaw noted that the war is driving up essential production costs, particularly for fuel and fertiliser, which are critical for spring planting and livestock forage.
While food inflation is not currently expected to exceed the record highs of 2023, the union warns that these rising input costs will inevitably be passed on to retailers and consumers.
The immediate impact is expected to hit glasshouse horticulture first, with prices for staples like cucumbers, tomatoes, and peppers likely to rise within the next six weeks.
Over a longer timeframe of three to six months, the costs for milk, field-scale crops, and meat are also projected to increase as the “second wave” of the supply shock takes hold.
This delay is due to the time required for higher energy and fertiliser costs to filter through the entire agricultural cycle, from initial planting to final processing and transportation.
A primary driver of this crisis is the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas, and one-third of the world’s fertiliser ingredients, typically pass.
The blockade has caused nitrogen-based fertiliser prices to surge by roughly 23% to 40%, while “red diesel” fuel used for farm machinery has seen price increases of over 50% since the conflict began.
These pressures have prompted senior government ministers to schedule emergency meetings to discuss support packages and price transparency for struggling households and farm businesses.
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