Speculation over who will lead the National Democratic Congress (NDC) into the 2028 general elections is intensifying, even as the party settles into
Speculation over who will lead the National Democratic Congress (NDC) into the 2028 general elections is intensifying, even as the party settles into government following President John Dramani Mahama’s return to power.
Although the NDC has not opened nominations or conducted any internal elections, new polling data among ordinary voters across the regions—not party delegates—suggests that Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson may be gaining an early edge over other leading figures, including National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia.
The uncertainty surrounding succession has been fuelled by months of speculation over whether President Mahama might seek an unprecedented third presidential term.
While these rumours have kept potential aspirants cautious, John Mahama has repeatedly stated that he will not contest again, effectively clearing the path for internal jockeying ahead of 2028.
National Snapshot: A Tight, Fragmented Race
According to a survey by Global InfoAnalytics, ordinary voters sympathetic to the NDC remain divided over who should lead the party after Mahama.
In the national preference ranking, Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu tops the list with 26 percent, followed closely by Ato Forson on 23 percent, and Asiedu Nketia on 22 percent.
The Vice President Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang polled 11 percent, while Chief of Staff Julius Debrah recorded 7 percent.
North Tongu MP, and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa secured 6 percent, with Prof. Joshua Alabi and Minister for Food And Agriculture Eric Opoku trailing on 3 percent and 2 percent respectively.
While the Minister for Education Haruna Iddrisu leads nationally, analysts caution that the narrow margins indicate a fluid contest, with regional dynamics likely to shape the eventual frontrunner.
Four-Horse Test: Forson Moves Ahead
In a simulated four-candidate race excluding Prof. Opoku-Agyemang, Haruna Iddrisu, Okudzeto Ablakwa, and Julius Debrah, Dr. Ato Forson emerges as the clear leader with 48 percent support, ahead of Asiedu Nketia’s 41 percent. Prof. Joshua Alabi and Eric Opoku follow with 6 percent and 5 percent respectively.
This scenario has heightened attention around Forson, who is widely perceived within political circles as President Mahama’s preferred successor.
He is also believed to be positioning himself for a potential ticket pairing with Energy Minister John Abdulai Jinapor, a combination seen by some party strategists as balancing economic credibility with energy-sector experience.
Regional Picture: Swing Regions Favour Forson
A deeper look at the regional breakdown reinforces Ato Forson’s growing influence.
He records commanding numbers in Greater Accra, Central, Western, and Western North regions, in some cases exceeding 50 percent support among ordinary voters.
These regions are considered critical swing zones in national elections, giving Ato Forson a strategic advantage beyond party strongholds.
Asiedu Nketia, by contrast, posts strong performances in Brong Ahafo, Bono East, Ashanti, and parts of the Central Region, reflecting his long-standing dominance within party structures and grassroots organization networks built over decades.
Northern Stronghold Still Backs Haruna
Despite Forson’s surge, Haruna Iddrisu remains dominant in the northern belt, polling between 51 percent and 71 percent across the Northern, Upper East, and Upper West regions.
His stronghold support underlines his continued relevance and explains why he remains a key figure in succession discussions.
Haruna Iddrisu is widely believed to be aligning politically with Vice President Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, amid reports that she has quietly backed his long-term ambitions.
However, the polling data suggests that while his base is solid, his appeal outside the north faces stiff competition from Ato Forson.
Frontliners And Power Brokers
Within party circles, Asiedu Nketia and Julius Debrah are still regarded as institutional heavyweights and early frontliners, given their proximity to the presidency and influence over party machinery.
Yet, the data among ordinary voters indicates that executive performance in government—particularly economic stewardship—may be weighing more heavily on voter preferences than party hierarchy.
What the Polls Mean
Global InfoAnalytics emphasizes that the findings reflect voter sentiment, not delegate strength, meaning the numbers do not automatically translate into internal party victory.
Nevertheless, the results point to a shifting mood within the NDC base, where Ato Forson is increasingly seen as a viable post-Mahama candidate, capable of holding swing regions while maintaining party unity.
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